The US economy enters the 8th year of economic recovery this quarter, with an Unemployment Rate of less than 5%. The prevailing 30 year fixed rate mortgage is again approaching late 2012 levels; the lowest seen in some 50 years.
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This is a political crisis with substantial economic consequences, largely for the UK. In our view, it is not a systemic financial crisis and is most unlikely to degenerate into one. Central banks are well placed to meet liquidity needs if required.
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In a shock for financial markets which had been increasingly confident that Britain would vote to Remain in the European Union, a victory for the Leave outcome by 52% to 48% triggered an abrupt bout of “risk off” in financial markets late last week.
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The majority of asset classes continued their positive returns in May as investors returned to their search for higher yielding assets. Commodities also continued their uptrend, with iron ore being one exception as it fell from recent high’s, leading to the Resources Index falling 5%.
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The majority of asset classes’ recorded lower, but still positive returns, in April, after the strong rallies in March, as investors reduced their expectations that a global recession was imminent.
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This year has seen a growing concern that central banks are out of ammo when it comes to reinvigorating global growth and preventing deflation. And the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate cut has some fearing that it’s going down the same “failed path” as other major central banks. But is it really that bad?
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No, Max is not retiring! He was recently asked to be interviewed about his 30 years in the industry and we wanted to share it with you. We are so happy with the result as it truly shows the Max you know and love. You will understand when you watch it. I couldn’t stop smiling. That’s my dad! #soproud
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The past week has seen a significant rise in the implied market pricing of a 0.25% US Fed Funds Rate increase at or before the July FOMC. The immediate catalyst was the publication of the April FOMC minutes (Wednesday, 18th May) which appear to adopt a more “hawkish” tone than most assumed from the Statement issued upon the conclusion of the meeting on 27 April.
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Please click on the link below to view a summary of the 2016 Federal Budget.
The majority of asset classes recorded increased returns in March. This came as investors moved on from global growth concerns, and central banks continued to ease monetary policy. The strongest returns were recorded in asset classes that had deteriorated the most since the market pullback, which began in late December 2015.
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