February was dominated by political news from the United States and more recently the potential for a rate hike in March, however in Australia the improving economic outlook as well as the recent reporting season received relatively little attention.
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January was dominated by economic and political news from the United States with President Trump leading with a range actions including withdrawing the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and placing a travel ban on travel from seven countries.
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2016 was a notable year for investors as it started with a sell-off and poor sentiment driven by concerns around global growth and deflation and ended with all major asset classes delivering solid returns. The best performing asset class was Australian listed property, recording a return of 13.2%, followed by Australian equities at 11.8%.
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The election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States saw markets initially fall and then rally strongly with the Dow Jones Industrial Index subsequently
rallying to an all-time high. Other global equity markets also rallied as did Australian equities.
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At the time of writing the US election outcome was tending toward a Trump victory. Post-election markets will most likely turn to consideration of an interest rate by the US Fed. Most economists see a December rate hike as likely however there are a number of factors that make for a more muted market response than that of January/February this year.
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September was dominated by Central Bank positioning and statements and investor perceptions of these statements. Last month we wrote that “Uncertainty around the timing of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates was contrasted with other developed economies looking to increase their accommodative policy measures.
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Conflicting direction regarding global government economic action came into focus during August. Uncertainty around the timing of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates was contrasted with other developed economies looking to increase their accommodative policy measures.
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Equity and bond markets moved up over July continuing the rally that started last month after the Brexit vote in the UK. It is unusual for both these asset classes to move in tandem as a strong equity market usually indicates an improving economy while a buoyant bond market is usually associated with a slowing economy, or a recession.
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June was characterized by heightened volatility as a result of the decision by UK voters to depart the European Union, a decision which was unexpected by markets. The initial sell-off in equity markets was severe however, as is often the case, once investors had time to examine the actual financial impacts of the decision, equities rallied sharply.
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The majority of asset classes continued their positive returns in May as investors returned to their search for higher yielding assets. Commodities also continued their uptrend, with iron ore being one exception as it fell from recent high’s, leading to the Resources Index falling 5%.
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