After the biggest fall in at least 40 years – with a 10.2% top to bottom fall between September 2017 and June this year – average capital city home prices have turned up again.
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After the biggest fall in at least 40 years – with a 10.2% top to bottom fall between September 2017 and June this year – average capital city home prices have turned up again.
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Since the RBA started cutting interest rates again back in June and in the process taking them closer to zero there has been increasing debate that it will deploy so-called “unconventional monetary policy measures” such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing.
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After nearly 12 years the Australian share market is above its November 2007 pre-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) high. The All Ords index surpassed it last week and the ASX 200 has done so this week.
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This decade has now seen three global growth scares – around 2011-12, 2015-16 and now since last year. Each have been associated with softening business conditions indicators.
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The negatives weighing on Australian residential property prices remain significant but the past few weeks have seen a number of developments that suggest that prices could bottom earlier and higher than we have been expecting. The election outcome removed a key threat, but several other factors also help.
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Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates. But what’s driving low inflation? Is it really that bad? Why not just lower the inflation target? Will rate cuts help? And what does it mean for investors?
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The past week has seen a renewed intensification of concerns about global growth. Bond yields have plunged and associated growth worries have weighed on share markets.
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After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns.
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The housing cycle and house prices always incite high interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and poor affordability – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last year it’s turned into how far prices will fall and what’s the impact on the economy.
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2019 is likely to be an interesting year for the Australian economy. Some of the big drags of recent years are receding but housing is turning down, uncertainty is high around the global outlook and it’s an election year, which will add to uncertainty.
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