Evans and Partners

Navigating local risks

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Valuations for the Australian market have reached extremes. The forward Price Earnings Ratio for the overall market has only been higher at the peak of the tech bubble in 1999 and valuations have never been higher compared with the US.

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Financial evaluator

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The Australian market hit record highs in terms of index points while valuations, using forward price to earnings ratio (PE) as a proxy, jumped above 17x for the first time since 2001. This is occurring at a time when earnings pressure is intensifying.

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Events dominating again

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We have entered another period where event risks are heightened and appear set to dominate market outcomes over the rest of the year.  Equities have a better relative valuation than bonds and represent the only major asset class where investors have the potential to make decent returns on capital over the next years in our view.

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Finding some pockets of value

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The recent combination of weak economic data and a dismal reporting season has focused attention back on the Australian market, and valuations in particular.  Pressures on the economy may not improve, as further weakness in housing construction appears on the horizon.

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Is TINA real?

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One of the difficult questions for investors is whether equity valuations deserve to be higher because of the large falls in interest rates in recent years. The subsequent rush into equities has been labelled TINA as in There Is No Alternative.

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The bears come out to play

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The bears are coming out to play. There is more talk in the press and by market commentators of the risk of recessions in the US and other countries and, depending on what you are reading, threats of another global financial crisis (GFC) event due to surging debt, income inequality, political risk, market liquidity and valuations.

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A new era for the Fed

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We appear to be on the cusp of a radical change in the approach to monetary policy in the US.  The Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently abandoned plans for further rate rises, declared an early termination of quantitative tightening and announced a strategic review of its monetary policy framework.

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